Oil production racing toward new highs

Trade association bumps up conventional, bitumen production outlook

Technology and strong pricing are expected to propel Canadian oil production to new highs, doubling output within the next 20 years, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers latest forecast.
Conventional oil production, which the association predicted last year would drop, will add a substantial chunk to the mix as fracturing and drilling technologies make otherwise old or costly fields more profitable, CAPP said Tuesday.
The association increased its overall oil production forecast from last year by 900,000 barrels per day for 2025, including a 200,000 bpd rise in conventional production.
“Resurging growth in Western Canadian conventional oil production and new oilsands investments are driving the positive outlook,” said Greg Stringham, vice-president of markets and oilsands.
This year alone companies will spend $1 billion more than anticipated in the oilsands, to $20 billion, the association said.
Oilsands production could double to 3.1 million bpd by 2020, CAPP said – up 100,000 bpd from last year’s forecast on stronger production and increased investment in the region.
The rise in production by the end of the decade would put Canada’s oil output almost the same as current volume from Iran, OPEC’s No. 2 producer.
While some analysts have warned that a recent slide in crude oil prices has added some uncertainty to forecasts, the group said a long roster of oilsands projects and a resurgence in light and heavy conventional oil were helping accelerate developments.
Conventional production staged a substantial comeback in the latest Canadian crude oil outlook, rising rather than falling the 240,000 bpd predicted in the 2011 forecast.
The association now sees conventional light and heavy crude climbing to 1.3 million bpd in eight years from 1.1 million in 2011.
Hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques applied to tight shale oil plays and mature fields such as the Cardium and Duvernay in Alberta have increased production while bettering the economics, said analyst Alan Knowles, with Haywood Securities.
“All of those plays are getting a lot of traction,” he said. “Some of the early heavy lifting has been done and they are getting more into the more predictable stage of development, so there is a lot of growth in the foreseeable future.”
Steady demand for energy from developing economies trumps uncertainty about European demand, particularly as non-OPEC crude production has failed to increase as much as expected, he said.
Over the past six weeks, U.S. benchmark oil has dropped about $20 into the $84 a barrel range, and deep discounts on Canadian oil caused by tight pipeline capacity have raised concerns that some longer-term oilsands developments could get deferred.
On Monday, Wood Mac kenzie released a report saying pure-play oilsands developers without hedges in place are most likely to cancel or delay project plans.
CAPP said most production growth will go toward displacing imported crude supplies in Eastern Canada, reaching the U.S. Gulf Coast and getting shipped to Asian markets.
Projected increases in the next few years have heightened the urgency for boosting pipeline capacity to export markets, Stringham said. Ottawa seeks to streamline the regulatory process for advancing such projects through a controversial series of measures contained in a sweeping budget bill.
Without new or expanded lines, production could now bump up against available ex-port capacity by as early as 2014-2015, CAPP said. That moves up the expectation by one to two years.
Several pipeline projects, including Enbridge’s Inc.’s Line 9 reversal, TransCanada Corp.’s Keystone XL and Enbridge’s Northern Gateway, are designed to get Canadian crude to those locations, though all face op-position from environmental groups.
“Timely regulatory decisions on new upstream development and infrastructure projects will enhance Canada’s international competitiveness in attracting the investment needed to support this production growth and realize market opportunities, benefiting all Canadians,” CAPP said in a statement.
In the interim, rail shipments of crude are expected to increase sharply as capacity can be added quickly and in small increments as required. Railways also have the additional bonus of existing infra-structure in place.