Steady growth forecast for city…

Calgary will set the pace for economic gains for the next three years, buoyed by a strong energy sector that will bring steady employment and population growth to the city. “With employment growing vigorously again and population growth back to pre-recession pace, Calgary’s economic picture is sunny again,” Mario Lefebvre, director of the Centre for Municipal Studies with the Conference Board of Canada, told business leaders Thursday at the 2013 Economic Outlook luncheon organized by Calgary Economic Development.
The conference board forecasts Calgary will lead the country in 2013 – with economic growth of 3.6 per cent – and into 2016 with average annual increases of 3.7 per cent.
Lefebvre said 40,000 jobs have been created in Calgary since the beginning of 2011. That job creation has fuelled domestic demand and lifted retail sales and housing starts.
Job growth in Calgary will be four per cent this year and 3.5 per cent in 2013, he said.
Population gains – expected to be 2.5 per cent through 2013 – have almost returned to pre-2008-2009 recession levels, he said, a positive indicator for the city’s housing market.
“Although it remains a risk-filled global economic environment, the most likely scenario is for continued moderate economic growth across Canada, with inflation staying well contained and interest rates remaining low,” Craig Alexander, senior vice-president and chief economist with the TD Bank Group, told the downtown Hyatt audience.
“Prospects for a soft-landing in China’s economy should support commodity prices. This bodes well for Alberta, which is expected to lead the provincial economic growth rankings in 2013.”
Alexander said Alberta should average 3 per cent economic growth in the 2013-2014 period, which will lead the country. Canada’s average growth for the same period is forecast to be 2.2 per cent.
While some over-valuation exists in the housing market, most notably in Vancouver and Toronto, he said, the Calgary market is different with the economic fundamentals here able to support the expected slow rise of home prices over the next two years.
More broadly, Alexander said the world economy remains in recovery mode with the European economic crisis far from being resolved.
“Europe is the slowest moving train wreck in a long time,” he said.
Bruce Graham, president and chief executive of Calgary Economic Development, said the annual economic outlook event “provides Calgary decision-makers with the opportunity to validate their opinions on current market trends and conditions, which will ultimately influence the future direction they take in their organizational planning.
“Calgary has had a very strong year economically … As I travel around the world, Calgary does have a message of optimism.”